Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 1.668497 2.206466 2.936992 4.028368 5.666010 8.116133e+00 1.223300e+01
2025-01-12 1.036006 1.544915 2.354296 3.812489 6.563046 1.199034e+01 2.500317e+01
2025-01-19 0.675310 1.100700 1.864077 3.465557 7.156814 1.666423e+01 5.038075e+01
2025-01-26 0.497988 0.880607 1.649962 3.528123 8.891836 2.782015e+01 1.436503e+02
2025-02-02 0.399918 0.765152 1.587462 3.941494 12.519035 5.789646e+01 7.400727e+02
2025-02-09 0.334134 0.688468 1.578489 4.578197 18.937441 1.481936e+02 1.222874e+04
2025-02-16 0.270723 0.591256 1.470625 4.875957 25.890331 3.699177e+02 6.294681e+06
2025-02-23 0.213472 0.486410 1.285936 4.734513 31.081521 8.277187e+02 NaN
2025-03-02 0.168302 0.396177 1.098726 4.404596 34.777053 1.789376e+03 NaN
2025-03-09 0.144062 0.353917 1.046589 4.723052 49.219955 9.398149e+03 NaN
2025-03-16 0.123938 0.316078 0.990031 4.990059 69.088436 1.105965e+05 NaN
2025-03-23 0.109348 0.289618 0.962758 5.466158 106.103185 2.712678e+08 NaN
2025-03-30 0.095599 0.262567 0.925359 5.935216 169.705607 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.080359 0.225417 0.822358 5.682977 211.047931 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.067074 0.190849 0.712852 5.189022 234.202236 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.059045 0.172177 0.670107 5.352923 352.991014 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.054146 0.163125 0.671181 6.108613 743.577045 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.050516 0.157570 0.688788 7.274194 2084.627078 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.045880 0.146543 0.668132 7.859636 4883.573133 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.040612 0.131364 0.612663 7.650330 7895.448359 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.035664 0.116177 0.548808 7.091215 10116.255834 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.032957 0.109600 0.537594 7.698362 35567.092169 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.030424 0.103013 0.522391 8.216253 169259.737825 NaN NaN